Various uncertainties put us in front of situations for which there is no control and no possibility of forecasting.
Last update: February 18, 2022
Psychologist Paul KJ Han has categorized uncertainties into three types based on the criteria of probability, ambiguity and complexity. This is an interesting contribution, since we tend to speak almost always of uncertainty as such, but we do not specify the forms it assumes in the various circumstances.
Each type of uncertainty relates to the source or cause of that state. It is clear that uncertainty is not always due to the same factor. In general, it has to do with a condition in which there is no certainty about the development or consequences of an event, but this can be due to several reasons.
Uncertainties are an inevitable part of any person's life. Also whether this lack of control can cause restlessness or even anxiety, the truth is that it is present in almost everything we do, even if we sometimes pretend it isn't.
“Don't look for answers now that you cannot understand because you are not ready to live them. The key is to live it all. Live the questions. Maybe one day away you will find the answer, gradually and without realizing it ”.
-Rainer Maria Rilke-
The uncertainties of life
1. Uncertainty due to probability
The first type of uncertainty is called "uncertainty about probability". It refers to the eventuality in which it is not possible to assess the level of risk of a situation or decision. This generally depends on the many variables involved, so it is impossible to predict the consequences and outcomes.
An example of this kind of uncertainty could be a serious illness. There is information on the pathology and also a general prognosis, but there is no certainty about how the organism might react to the treatment. Nor is it defined how it will develop.
Most of the time we let ourselves be guided by optimistic prejudice. That is, we tend to assume that possible negative effects will not occur, even if there is no real basis for this claim. In these situations, it is important to also consider possible negative scenarios.
2. Uncertainty due to ambiguity
The second type of uncertainty according to Paul KJ Han is due to ambiguity. It corresponds to those cases where yes doubts about the development or effects of a situation or decision because you don't have reliable information. What is available is incomplete, confusing or not totally reliable.
A typical situation in this case would be the use of an investigational drug. There is no certainty about its effectiveness, nor fully corroborated information on possible side effects. While making a risk estimate, this can vary significantly.
In a situation like this, the ideal is to gather as much information as possible from a variety of reliable sources. It is thus possible to reduce the margin of uncertainty and make a more informed decision.
Likewise, it is important to better calculate the risks and weigh the benefits. Too high a risk or too low a benefit tip the balance towards passivity.
3. Uncertainty due to complexity
The third and final type of uncertainty is that due to complexity. In these cases there is a problem that is difficult to understand, because the situation is new or uncommon.
A common example would be computer damage. Suddenly a program fails and the expected fixes are applied, but it is not enough. Another exemplary example is the crisis of 2020. Such a new and unexpected situation shook the whole world and for several months no clear course of action was taken.
Conclusions on uncertainties
First of all, it is important to stay calm. Taking the necessary emotional distance from situations that are a source of uncertainty is very helpful to be able to see them in perspective.
We also need to get used to the idea that the solution will not be immediate and that it will be important to investigate and gather information about it.
Uncertainties, regardless of type, cause a certain degree of discomfort because we humans are prone to "play it safe", even if it's not really possible. A smart approach is to accept the inevitability of events and learn to manage it.
